Friday, April 11, 2014

Also!

The other debut we're not hearing much about!

It would appear there needs to be be a consistent fast pace from the beginning to take the sting out of  T. Dibaba, and it will need to come from the racers themselves as this is "women only". It is not difficult to see up to 4 women being under 2h 20', and maybe a couple significantly faster than that - however the difficulty remains they have to do it themselves with no "free ride" to 30k., and I think long before that they will be racing each other. We are more likely to see a negative split in the women's race, and if she doesn't lose early contact then I think that plays into Jeptoo's hands (or feet!).

The field previewed:
http://www.runnersworld.com/elite-runners/london-women-dibaba-debuts-in-loaded-field

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/apr/10/tirunesh-dibaba-confident-challenge-london-marathon?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/general/athletics/london-marathon-2014-mo-farahs-debut-topped-by-brilliant-tirunesh-dibaba-9252671.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWL0SPF9Ap8&feature=youtu.be


The Event

Mo Farah accurately describing what he’s attempting to do on Sunday. The 3:28 1500 runner is taking on the world’s best over 42.2 km in a race that seems like a real-life version of fantasy track and field

What to expect:
It would be easy to say the answer is somewhere in all the links below - but as we know it doesn't matter how many words are written, or many "grey cells" are lost in analysis of the race, the marathon more than most events, is capable of producing a result no one thought of! 
First and foremost MoFa is a racer in the mould of the younger Ovett - not interested in records, but prepared to race you, and whatever you threw at him. Unfortunately, in terms of finding out what he is capable of, no one has chosen to really "stick it to him" in a championship 5k. or 10k. The man undoubtedly is very talented, and has real speed - I do not doubt that he could beat the World Records for 2k., 3k. and 5k. but I am by no means confident he can beat the 10k. record. Both Smiley Haile and KB set multiple records at 5k and 10k. and had a greater volume of miles in their legs, before attempting their first marathons; and of course did not set World Records in their debuts - it took SH a couple of years and a few races to get there. And of course there have been many talented athletes who have run fast half marathons and not made the transition to the full distance - and in this professional era it hasn't mattered much, because they can still make a very nice living thank you! Everything changes physiologically after 60-70 minutes effort.
A big part of the puzzle that is missing, for both race preparation and prediction, is the 20 mile race - the great Belgrave 20 mile races of the 60s, 70s, and into the 80s were great predictors of marathon performance, as was the Inter-County 20 miles.
What part, if any, has MoFa's fall and subsequent "collapse", played in his preparation (physical and mental) - I would suggest very little physically - he has previously shown a tendency to react badly in very cold weather, and that is unlikely to be an issue Sunday - I do think that how easily Mutai handled him ( the fall not withstanding) may play on his mind.
Public statements have consistently been "my aim is to break the British Record" rather than win, and the statement "I always enter a race attempting to win" was probably read a little out of context as being a change to his basic plan to get through the race. We have also been told the plan is to back off the lead group and aim for 62' 15" at the halfway, and come back with a negative split - how much faster can someone go in the second half when their best for the distance is over 60'?
We are told Smiley Haile's pace making will continue to 30k.  (still about 2k. short of 20 miles), and as we know that is really the point at which the race starts (to quote one of the commentators at the Paris race "this is 6 miles longer than any sensible race should be" - needless to say an "ex-sprinter"!). If there are still 4-6 runners with him, I think 2, or even 3 of them, could break the World record, but I do not think MoFa will be one of them, and I think Geoffrey Mutai would win in that scenario. Should the pace back off after SM's duties finish I believe Kiprotich can win, as of course could MoFa if he's still in the mix.
If he runs under 2h 5' I think the move up can be considered a success, but is he is significantly slower (2h 6'+) he needs to put off the experiment for a while.

Renato Canova Prediction (this link should go directly to it, but you may need to scroll down):
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5735714&page=1#5735936

A Prediction:
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/04/2014-london-marathon-mens-preview-breaking-race-ages/


'LetsRun' London 2014 Special:
http://www.letsrun.com/events/2014-london-marathon/

All the video interviews you could possibly want!
https://www.youtube.com/user/LondonMarathonTV/videos


Race Previews:
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2014/apr/11/mo-farah-expected-win-london-marathon

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/apr/11/london-marathon-haile-gebrselassie-guide

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/apr/09/mo-farah-london-marathon

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/apr/08/mo-farah-collapse-new-york-london-marathon-kipsang

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/video/2014/apr/08/mo-farah-london-marathon-video

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/athletics/26996558

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/athletics/26963298

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/athletics/26968962

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/athletics/26946697

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/london-marathon/10760631/London-Marathon-2014-Mo-Farah-says-victory-on-Sunday-would-be-his-greatest-achievement.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/london-marathon/10761336/London-Marathon-2014-Mo-Farah-looks-ready-to-step-up-for-a-test-against-the-best.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/london-marathon/10758916/Mo-Farah-will-break-my-29-year-old-British-record-in-London-Marathon-says-Steve-Jones.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/london-marathon/10756131/Mo-Farah-to-run-in-slower-group-in-London-Marathon.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/london-marathon/10752969/Mo-Farah-raring-to-go-for-Sundays-London-Marathon.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/london-marathon/10753333/London-Marathon-2014-Mo-Farah-is-setting-his-sights-on-victory-and-a-British-record-on-his-debut-over-26.2-miles.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/10750404/Long-distance-great-Kenenisa-Bekele-looks-forward-to-taking-his-rivalry-with-Mo-Farah-on-the-road.html

Ow - that's going to itch!




Really good news

Why?

Meaningful advice!

Now this is a tip I can really relate to

Paul Freedman - Follow a nice bum

Paul Freedman, 89, is the oldest runner at this year's London Marathon. He has taken part in every London Marathon since 1991, except 2004 when he was recovering from a heart attack.
"Last year I was asked what kept me going and I replied by saying 'I get behind a nice bum and go from there!

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Can you say "No honour among thieves"!

... of even "rats leaving a sinking ship"
(actually I think the ship was already on the bottom of the ocean - just that some of the "rats' were hiding in an airhole
It transpires that LA is a real stand up guy

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/cycling/2014/04/09/lance-armstrong-named-names-written-answers-doping/7532825/

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

This is what sets him apart!

Gotta love this response by MoFa to the inevitable question:

On Kenenisa Bekele's Paris win, Farah says: "It gives me good confidence. If Bekele can do it, then why can’t I?"

And now you know the rest of the story!

As is often the case the full story eventually emerge - original explanation by the organisers blamed the supplier.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-26938226?

... and something good came out of the "chaos"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/07/sheffield-half-marathon-runners-farce-water-shortage

Monday, April 7, 2014

Coffee and red wine may benefit brain health!

Good to know that all my hard work hasn't been for naught (though you wouldn't know by my "results"!)

Want to lower your risk for age-related brain disease like Alzheimer's? Start drinking more of these popular adult beverages . . . 

http://www.sharecare.com/health/diet-nutrition/article/coffee-red-wine-keep-mind-young?eid=1010707950&memberid=23289636&_sid=4cd442d4-7206-4a5a-9fa8-2b177ff192b5&#cmpid=sceml00

Friday, April 4, 2014

The "Kick-Off" Event!

(or the "warm-up" act for next week!)
I think this is one of the most well thought out, balanced and nuanced articles I have read on running.
I also think Joe Hermans must be a heck of a diplomat managing KB and Smiley Haile

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/05/sports/paris-marathon-kicks-off-a-month-of-foot-races.html?_r=1

Wednesday, April 2, 2014

I took the test! (2)

And then I took a "mental age" test - it probably confirms what most of you thought!!

http://en.piixemto.com/tests/mental-age/?data=MjU1

I took the test! (1)

I have to stop looking at Facebook - it causes me to do silly things!

I scored 39% in the @channel4 psychopathic traits test. 
How psychopathic are you? 
Take the test http://www.channel4.com/psychopath #psychopathnight

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

The Beginning?


April Fools! (2)

This "spoof" quoted from the 'LetsRun' April 1, 2004 homepage...
'Jacobs lawyer, Craig Greer, was unapologetic about filing the lawsuit. "The lawsuit is 100% legitimate. Regina's life has been ruined plain and simple by her positive drug test and Suzy forced her to take the drugs. It's a rather straightforward and simple case to understand," said Greer'
... reminds me of "Moaning Meadows" claim that the drug taking Russians had caused her achilles injury because they had "forced" her to (run more mileage) train harder.

What a wonderful contrast those earlier April Fools pages are (stupid Americans threatened law suits because they had been fooled) to the present ones - they all but give the game away in today's one by giving a link to the "real" homepage.
On the plus side there is also a link to previous "Aprils Fool" homepages 2001-2013

Aprils Fools! (1)

Given the gullibility and stupidity one sees on the 'LetsRun' message boards I can see a lot of (US) folk falling for this!

                                           USATF Has Listened!!

- USATF CEO Max Siegel reacting to the uproar that resulted after the Gabriele Grunewald/Jordan Hasay controversyin an April 1, 2014 USATF press release announcing that to avoid any and all conflicts of interests USATF will officially become a subsidiary of Nike later this year.